‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Average daily sunspot numbers declined over the past reporting week,
March 27 to April 2, from 135.6 to 130.4, compared to the previous
seven days. Likewise, average daily solar flux drifted lower, from
153.2 to 149.  The current prediction, from USAF/NOAA on April 3,
has solar flux at 155 on April 4, 160 on April 5 to 8, 150 on April
9 and 10, 140 on April 11, 135 on April 12 and 13, then 140 and 145
on April 14 and 15, 150 on April 16 to 18, 155 on April 19 to 22,
145 on April 23 to 28, 140 on April 29 through May 2, 135 on May 3,
and 140 on May 4 to 8.  Predicted planetary A index is 14, 20 and 8
on April 4 to 6, 5 on April 7 to 16, 8 on April 17 to 19, 5 on April
20 to 22, 8 on April 23 to 26, 5 on April 27 through May 2, then 8
on May 3 and 4, 5 on May 5, and 8 on May 6.  OK1HH gives us his
weekly prediction for geomagnetic conditions, as well as
observations about this solar cycle peak.  Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to active April 4, active to disturbed
April 5, quiet to unsettled April 6, quiet on April 7, mostly quiet
April 8 and 9, quiet to unsettled April 10 and 11, quiet on April
12, quiet to unsettled April 13, mostly quiet April 14 and 15, quiet
on April 16, quiet to active April 17, mostly quiet April 18 and 19,
quiet to active April 20 and 21, and back to quiet on April 22.  He
expects an increase in solar wind on April 4 and 5, again on April 8
and 11, although less certain, then again on April 13 and 14, and
April 20 and 21. He says the reliability of predictions is
temporarily reduced because of significant changes in the
configuration of active regions, which is not unusual at the cycle
peak.  OK1HH believes we are experiencing the solar cycles second
maximum at present, probably a bit higher than the primary one, and
I agree with him, based on tracking a 3 month moving average of
daily sunspot numbers.  The Australian governments IPS Radio and
Space Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at 0445 UTC
on April 3, Active region 12027 produced a M6.5 X ray flare with
associated CME on 02 April. Possible Active to Minor Storm
conditions at higher latitudes on 05 April due to CME arrival.
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FOR 05 APRIL 2014.  Looking at our 3 month moving average of daily
sunspot numbers, I am seeing several peaks, and a recent steady
increase. First of all, the average sunspot number for January,
February and March 2014 was 146.4, the highest since the three
months centered on December 2002, which was 151.5.  I see a 3 month
moving average peak of daily sunspot numbers at 118.8 and 118.6
centered on October/November 2011, average daily sunspot number for
all of 2012 was only 82.3, then we have another 3 month moving
average peak centered on April/May 2013 at 106.4 for both periods,
and since then it has been 97.5, 85.6, 77.4, 91.2, 102.9, 123.7,
123.3, 138.5 and 146.4.  Sunspot numbers were 145, 135, 132, 122,
129, 124, and 126, with a mean of 130.4. 10.7 cm flux was 144.8,
146.4, 142.7, 148.4, 152.4, 153.3, and 154.7, with a mean of 149.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 8, 5, 7, 6, and 5, with a
mean of 6.6. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 7, 9, 9, 5, 8, 5,
and 6, with a mean of 7.

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰