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Solar activity spiked up again this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers rising from 73 to 120.9.  Likewise, average daily solar flux
tracked upward from 106.7 to 122.7. Nice to have increased solar
activity coincide with the Autumnal Equinox, right when HF hams are
more likely to be active.  Predicted solar flux is 120 on October 2,
115 and 105 on October 3 and 4, 100 on October 5 to 8, 115 on
October 9 and 10, 110 on October 11 and 12 and then 115, 120 and 125
on October 13 to 15.  Next its 130 on October 16 to 18, 125 on
October 19, 120 on October 20 to 24, then 130, 125, 120 and 115 on
October 25 to 28, 110 on October 29 through November 1, 115 on
November 2 to 6 and 110 on November 7 and 8.  Predicted planetary A
index is 22, 24, 33 and 23 on October 2 to 5, then 14, 8, 5 and 10
on October 6 to 9, 8 on October 10 to 14, then 12, 10 and 12 on
October 15 to 17, 8 on October 18 to 24, 7 on October 25 to 27, then
15, 10, 7 and 15 on October 28 to 31, and 12, 8, 12, 18 and 10 on
November 1 to 5, and 8 on November 6 to 11.  The Australian Space
Forecast Centre sent a geomagnetic warning at 2330 UTC on October 1.
They expect increased geomagnetic activity from October 2 to 4 due
to a high speed wind stream from a coronal hole. We should see
active geomagnetic conditions on October 2 and 3, and active to
minor storm on October 4.  Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech
Propagation Interest Group sees the geomagnetic field as quiet to
active October 2 and 3, quiet to unsettled October 4 to 6, active to
disturbed October 7 and 8, quiet to unsettled October 9 and 10,
quiet to active October 11 to 14, quiet to unsettled October 15,
quiet to active October 16 and 17, mostly quiet on October 18 to 20,
The monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for May through
September were 83, 77.4, 68.5, 61.7, and 72.5.  The three month
moving averages of daily sunspot numbers centered on January through
August were 98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4, 77.7, 76.3, 69.1 and 67.5. A
three month moving average centered on August incorporates a sum of
all daily sunspot numbers from July 1 through September 30, divided
by 92, the number of days. A three month moving average centered on
July incorporates all data from June 1 through August 31.  I saw so
many signals in the RTTY segment on Sunday that I couldnt resist
getting into the contest for a while. In less than five hours of on
time between 1422Z and 1950Z I worked over 300 stations, virtually
all in Europe, with great signals.  My own archives of the NOAA/USAF
daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in
downloadable spreadsheet format at //bit.ly/1VOqf9B and
//bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .  Sunspot numbers were 86, 145, 138, 154, 120,
125, and 78, with a mean of 120.9. 10.7 cm flux was 106.8, 119.8,
120.2, 127.5, 124, 129.2, and 131.1, with a mean of 122.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 4, 4, 4, 6, and 3, with a
mean of 5.1. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 8, 6, 4, 4, 5, 5,
and 2, with a mean of 4.9.


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