‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Despite solar flare activity pushing a sudden ionospheric
disturbance and a dramatic shortwave radio blackout, at least the
average daily planetary A index for the week was only 5.7, down from
6.1 in last weeks bulletin.  The average middle latitude A index was
also 6.1 last week, and it was 6.3 this week.  The flare was an X1.5
Class event, the biggest since September 2017 and the only X Class
solar flare since then.  Readers asked, What was that?  Scott Craig,
WA4TTK wrote, What happened about 1430 UTC on July 3?  Some people
on a forum are saying it was a massive solar flare.  I was on 20
meter FT8 and my waterfall display went from solid red signals to
solid nothing in the blink of an eye.  It lasted about 10 minutes.
Events such as this can be so dramatic many have an initial reaction
assuming there was a major hardware failure in their radio, or maybe
their antenna blew down or was destroyed by lightning.  Fortunately,
these are rare.  W3LPL sent an excellent written narrative on this
event, but his report was covered yesterday in the ARRL Letter, so I
wont repeat it here.  Predicted solar flux is 73 on July 9 to 13, 72
on July 12 and 13, then 72 on July 14 and 15, 76 on July 16, 82 on
July 17 and 18, 84 on July 19, 88 on July 20 to 22, 90 on July 23 to
28, 88 on July 29 through August 2, 84 on August 3, 82 on August 4
and 5, 80 on August 6 to 11, and 82 on August 12 to 14.  Predicted
planetary A index is 5 on July 9 and 10, then 8, 12, 16, 12, and 8
on July 11 to 15, 5 on July 16 and 17, then 15, 12 and 10 on July 18
to 20, 5 on July 21 to 31, then 10 and 8 on August 1 and 2, 5 on
August 3 to 5, then 15 and 12 on August 6 and 7, and 5 on August 8
to 13.  Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 9 til
August 5, 2021 from Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech
Propagation Interested Group compiling this geomagnetic activity
weekly forecast since January 1978.  On July 5, I was amazed to work
KL7HBK at 1447 UTC on 50.323 MHz FT8.  John is in Anchor Point,
BO49, which is just south of Anchorage and I was beaming on the
short path, 345 degrees.  It wasnt a marginal contact.  John was in
for 10 minutes and gave me a report of 05 which suggests he might
have heard me on CW.  I believe John also worked into France, Italy
and EA6 the same day.  He confirmed the contact with me on LOTW the
next day.  Contacts between Alaska and Europe on 6m are very rare
and John was the only signal coming through from that region.  There
were no W6, W7 or VE7 stations audible as there had been on the
previous day.  The RAC Canada Day contest July 1st started with a
good evening opening on 40M to all nearby areas of Canada.  I worked
about 65 stations in Ontario and Quebec, mostly on SSB.  Sunday
morning around 1400 to 1845 UTC there was very intense sporadic E
into all provinces from Ontario east to Newfoundland on all bands,
including 10 meters.  Normally Ontario is skipping over me on 20M.
I worked 9 provinces on 15 CW, 10 on SSB, 8 on 10M CW, 9 on SSB Even
Labrador was worked on 15 SSB.  The highlight was a run of 5 British
Columbia stations on 10M CW at 1700.  VE1 through VE9 except VE8 and
VY2 Prince Edward Island were all logged on 10 SSB.  More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at //k9la.us/.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at //arrl.org/bulletins .  Sunspot numbers were 56,
72, 81, 60, 43, 52, and 25, with a mean of 55.6.  10.7 cm flux was
94.1, 94.9, 93.7, 91.1, 89.4, 83.2, and 76, with a mean of 88.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 4, 3, 7, 8, and 6, with a
mean of 5.7.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 6, 4, 4, 9, 8, and 6,
with a mean of 6.3.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ