= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Wow. Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could
be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and
by far the all time largest.  But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle
25, and this sunspot cycle is emerging better than the consensus
forecast. It is predicted to peak about 30 months from now in Summer
2025.  Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we
look forward to great HF propagation for years to come.  There were
six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week, January 5 to
11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January 8, another
on January 9  two more January 10 and still another on January 12,
when the sunspot number was 151.  Average daily sunspot number rose
from 97 to 135.9, and average daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2,
compared to the previous seven days.  On Thursday, January 12 the
noon solar flux was huge, 211.6, far above the 181.2 average for the
previous week.  Average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4
to 6.7, and middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.  Compare the
solar numbers to last year. A year ago in Propagation Forecast
Bulletin ARLP002 the average daily sunspot number was only 42.4,
135.9 now, and average daily solar flux was 101.6, 181.2 now.  10
and 12 meters now have openings every day.  The solar flux
prediction was revised dramatically upward between the Wednesday
numbers in Thursdays ARRL Letter and the Thursday numbers in this
bulletin, from 196 to 210 for January 13.  Predicted solar flux is
210 on January 13 and 14, then 208, 206 and 204 on January 15 to 17,
200 on January 18 and 19, then 180, 160, 130 and 135 on January 20
to 23, 140 on January 24 to 26, 145 on January 27, then 155, 155 and
160 on January 28 to 30, 170 on January 31 through February 2, 175
and 180 on February 3 and 4, 185 on February 5 and 6, then 180, 178
and 175 on February 7 to 9, 155 on February 10 to 12, 145 on
February 13, 140 on February 14 to 16, 130 on February 17 and 18 and
increasing to 160 by the end of the month.  Predicted planetary A
index is 5, 10, and 8 on January 13 to 15, 5 on January 16 and 17,
then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 18 to 21, 5 on January 22 to 24,
then 8, 22, 12 and 8 on January 25 to 28, 5 on January 29 to 31,
then 12 and 8 on February 1 and 2, 5 on February 3 to 5, then 10, 12
and 8 on February 6 to 8, 5 on February 9 to 13, then 8, 15, 10 and
7 on February 14 to 17, and 5 on February 18 to 20.  In the
following days AR3182 activity was joined by the newly erupted
AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An X class flare
was observed there as well, an X1.9 on January 9 at 1850 UTC.  The
latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on //youtu.be/ .
Sunspot numbers were 103, 101, 104, 117, 142, 201, and 183, with a
mean of 135.9. 10.7 cm flux was 154.3, 172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9,
193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2.  Estimated planetary A indices
were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A
index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8, with a mean of 6.1.

= END OF 18 WPM transition file <