= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows = Average daily sunspot numbers declined, but average daily solar flux increased. Sunspot averages were 181.9 last week, and 130.6 this week. Average daily solar flux increased from 179.4 to 190.5. Two new sunspot groups emerged on July 14, three more on July 17 and another two on July 19. Average daily planetary and middle latitude A index were both 12.9 this week, rising from 8.6 and 8.1. Predicted solar flux is 185 on July 21 to 23, then 180, 178, 175 and 170 on July 24 to 27, 165 on July 28 and 29, 170 on July 30 and 31, 165 on August 1 to 4, then 170, 175, 175 and 170 on August 5 to 8, 165 on August 9 to 11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13 and 14, and 170 on August 15 to 19, 160 on August 20 to 23, 165 on August 24 and 25, then 170 on August 26 and 27 and 165 on August 28 to 31. Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 21 to 25, 5 on July 26 through August 2, then 10 and 8 on August 3 and 4, 5 on August 5 to 14, then 12, 8 and 8 on August 15 to 17, and 5 on August 18 to 29. Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths Ionosphere for July 20, 2023 from OK1HH. Weve seen another seven days of mostly moderate solar activity, with almost daily eruptions of moderate magnitude on the Sun. Some of these have been the source of CMEs. If the Earth has been affected by them, a geomagnetic disturbance followed, with a drop in MUF and a worsening of HF propagation in the process. As predicted, the expected CME hit the Earths magnetic field on the afternoon of 14 July, as part of the Bastille Day celebrations, but not nearly as strongly as in 2000. Another CME left the Sun on 14 July, and yet another on July 15. Because the cloud of later ejected solar plasma was faster, it cannibalized the previous CME. Together, they hit the Earth on July 18. But by then AR3363 had already produced a significant long lasting M6 class solar flare, and energetic protons accelerated by this flare reached the Earth and caused a radiation storm. Although MUFs were quite high, HF conditions were adversely affected by frequent occurrences of attenuation. Another CME hit the Earth on 20 July, registered by the Earths magnetic field at 1708 UTC. Further developments were predicted up to G1 to G2 class geomagnetic storms, with a small probability also of G3, but by then this report will have been completed and sent out. Finally, just a little note on the consequences of global change, it has been manifested in the last eleven year cycles, in the Earths troposphere it is the result of warming, but in the ionosphere it is rather the opposite. It has been the subject of a number of scientific papers in recent years. It is crucial for us, for amateur radio practice, that the current MUFs are lower than those calculated from sunspot counts for most of the twentieth century. Therefore, we should input Ri, or solar flux SFU, into forecast programs lower than what is currently measured and published. The bands are in much better shape than most hams realize, activity levels are normally quite low this summer. In the IARU contest I observed 15M open to Europe through 0300 UTC and I had QSOs with Indonesia, China, Nepal, Japan, Central/Western Siberia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines in the 2300 to 0300 UTC period. I copied GR2HQ, Great Britain HQ station, on 10M CW at 0140 UTC. At 1100 UTC on 15M EU and Central/West Asia were very loud and I started running a pile up on CW. For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see //www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service. Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST, //www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf Sunspot numbers were 146, 141, 96, 99, 149, 142, and 141, with a mean of 130.6. 10.7 cm flux was 202.9, 180.6, 178.5, 184.3, 180, 218.5, and 188.9, with a mean of 190.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 20, 8, 10, 24, 16, and 5, with a mean of 12.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 17, 9, 13, 19, 16, and 7, with a mean of 12.9. = END OF 18 WPM transition file <